Transparant chains with TeleFlower Auction (TFA)

Magic Priva computer

Crowded at Horti Fair House of Software

Anco Orchideën op FloraHolland Trade Fair

Horti-Fair House of Software: Interaction with the government

Schoneveld Breeding symposium met Rob Verlinden

Crisis: a V-, W- or WWW-shape?

(This post is directly translated from my Dutch Blog with Microsoft Translator)

What form did the crisis? Vee with a rapid decline and fast recovery, or more slowly with the u-shape? Or is it details or kwakkelen? As far as the latter is concerned, I throw the www shape in the battle. I believe that this is the best reality at the moment, and that the next few years will be similar.


I base myself on figures, facts in my neighborhood, and feeling. Various indexes have a kwakkelend pattern. The Baltic-dry was this week, for example, in the news. This displays the price development of dry bulk shipments (z.a. iron ore and grain) by sea. After a successful recovery is the beginning of this year has fallen dramatically in recent weeks. Furthermore, the 2-year volatility of options is still very great. The fine Google barometer also has considerable fluctuations.

Do you know, moreover, this Google barometer. Google analyzes the specified search words and categorize them. If there is a change taking place in search of second-hand cars rather than new than that on a koopkrachtvermindering. Something similar applies for jobs or koopbereidheid. I think that this is a very good reflection of the real state of the economy. The mass, the information is reliable.

Other figures are the bekendere such as consumer confidence, GDP, or percentage of unemployment. As far as the latter is concerned, in the last month of job losses in the private sector, and any profits in the public sector (care and Government). The increased productivity is something, but that is because the stocks. China has made an enormous amount of catching up to do after a difficult 2008 but also decreases the iron ore imports once again.

The incentive package goes to the Government at a given time. Interesting comparison with the crisis years 30. The Government also strongly encouraged the economy and the growth recovered rapidly from 1934. In 1936 the Government all stimukeringen back and increased even the interest rate. The result was disastrous, because the economy collapsed back in and recovered until vraagtoename as a result of the second world war. That will not happen but the rising unemployment for a dip in 2 years purchasing power. This is again all sectors, including the horticultural industry.

What I see in my (Horticultural) environment:
- Which are relatively significant in the tuinbouwsector: the EUR 200 million from Verburg if some bridging financing for farmers.
- Many bankruptcies in spite of the messages of FloraHolland that it is all right.
- Investment are coming to the base. Up to 20% for new construction, compared to other years.
- Technical subcontractors, who have lost (closure of Logic Agro) and others who are strong restructuring (Codema, Priva and others)
- Press collective funds such as 20% less for the flowers agency Holland.
- The Rabobank with 1 billion uncollectable Honourable loans in the horticultural industry.
- Flowers from Africa are sharply in the min.
- The horticulture in emerging areas of production in Europe is significantly less severely hit by the crisis.

It is my feeling that the economic laws have changed considerably in the horticultural industry. Horticulture has always been a little anti-cyclical. It was in the economy is bad then the flowers and plants typically prices. Save on vacation but flowers in the home for the conviviality. There is an oversupply in global terms not. A possible shift of global product flows to more local4local is under way. Mega-companies that tomatoes from left to right across Europe, transport to customers will get the more difficult than companies closer to the consumer. In addition, the desire for sustainable produced goods (incl. horticultural products) that the question of stronger goes hand in hand with consumer trends. In other words of anti-cyclically to a more cyclical economic structure.

To summarise, the shape of the crisis is a long w: www shape as it were. Some say that the crisis is an opportunity. Naturally, I am an optimist. But we must be agile -and I also- in any case.